Homey Holidays

It’s still looking a lot like Christmas — despite terrorism and war.

Consumers are expected to spend an average $940 per household on gifts this year, according to a National Retail Federation survey of 1,000 shoppers. November-December sales are expected to rise 2.5 to three percent over last year, per NRF, which revised its projection for a four-percent increase after Sept. 11. (NRF’s Consumer Holiday Outlook survey, conducted Oct. 19-21, covers categories including apparel, furniture, sporting goods, electronics, home furnishings, books, and music.)

Nearly 35 percent of shoppers 18 to 24 plan to buy gifts for more people this year. Plus, 66 percent of shoppers plan to take advantage of price discounts to buy non-gift items for themselves while gift purchasing, according to the survey.

The two biggest influences on how consumers will spend — a focus on family and the recession — could help or hurt specialty stores, depending on the category.

“The ‘what’s next?’ syndrome has some people holding back,” says Tom Holliday, president of the Retail Advertising & Marketing Association, a Chicago-based division of NRF, Washington, DC. “It will be a very unusual holiday season. But overall it will be a warm, family season.”

Retailers will spend nearly as much on marketing as they did last year, but will devote more to personalized pitches and less to mass-media advertising. Budgets may see a single-digit decline, “but to be five or six percent off last year’s spending is not significant, because last year’s spending was huge” and driven by dot-coms, says Holliday. “We may see more price promotion to move inventory that retailers have already committed to,” he adds.

Charity tie-ins — which are standard fourth-quarter fare — take on new importance this year. General Growth Properties, Chicago, will host its annual National Night of Giving in most of its 100-plus malls: Shoppers buy a ticket to a private shopping night with entertainment and events, and proceeds are donated to local or national charities chosen by local management. Tenant stores get a halo effect.

Some specialty stores got an early jump on their own fundraisers. FAO Schwarz, New York City, and Hasbro, Pawtucket, RI, channeled kids’ desire to help after the Sept. 11 attacks with a Play-A-Thon that runs through year-end. Kids get sponsorship forms in-store, then ask adults to pledge a donation to the charity of their choice for every hour of play. Nine days of events in the chain’s 40 stores kicked off the campaign in mid-October, and included appearances at the flagship New York City store by actress Susan Sarandon, singer Aaron Carter, and Pepsi ad star Hallie Eisenberg. Fleishmann Hillard and LaForce & Stevens, New York City, handle.

FAO Schwarz and Hasbro brainstormed the promo together after the attacks. “Everyone wanted to do something to help,” says FAO spokesperson Alan Marcus. “We both went to the core of our business to empower kids.”

A separate tie-in with Mattel touts a new version of a holiday classic, Barbie in the Nutcracker, airing on CBS. FAO Schwarz windows will display three-dimensional scenes from the computer-animated film, with heavy catalog and merchandising support. The promo has been in the works for a year at the chain, which showcases Barbie goods in branded in-store boutiques and Barbie-only catalogs.

Elsewhere, Hallmark plays to nostalgia in its first-ever tie-in with Coca-Cola, using artwork Haddon Sundblom did for Coke in the 1930s. The joint ‘Twas a Christmas to Remember promo offers a special price on snow globes featuring Sundblom’s Coke art and an illustrated version of ‘Twas the Night Before Christmas to Hallmark Gold Crown shoppers who buy three cards. Hallmark is also reprising last Valentine’s Day’s popular Kiss Kiss bears through Dec. 9, this time dressed in mistletoe sweaters, as a buy-one-get-one with purchase of three cards. TV, radio, and FSIs support via Leo Burnett USA, Chicago.

Meanwhile, Kinko’s, Ventura, CA, has a gift guide and price offers on photo calendars, posters, and cards, while Timberland Co. will run price offers in-store and online under the theme, “Enjoy the Present.” Timberland.com has free shipping through year’s end.

Specialty stores in malls benefit from national brand campaigns like Visa USA’s Magic Moments, a reprise from last year. Visa partner General Growth runs ads in mall common areas to promote the sweeps, which pays for purchases made at one specific moment each day. General Growth also assists stores that don’t deal directly with Visa. “We explain the program to them so if shoppers have questions, they can answer or direct them to us,” says General Growth senior director of strategic partnerships Kelly Norris.

Stores also get a halo from malls’ Santa displays. “Every shopping center tries to give out a little something at Santa Centers” such as small books, candy canes, or product samples coordinated by each mall’s marketing director, says Norris.

Home Shopping for the Holidays?

Santa may not be enough to lure out shoppers worried about large malls as terrorist targets. Those folks may shop in smaller locales, which could be a benefit to some specialty stores — and to online and catalog retailers. Nearly 60 percent of NRF’s survey respondents plan to use a remote shopping channel (catalog or online). Sixty nine percent plan to shop specialty stores, compared with 77 percent for department stores and 71 percent for discount department stores.

Some multi-channel retailers are worried. Spiegel, whose store, catalog, and online brands include Eddie Bauer and Newport News, expects fourth-quarter revenue (including retail sales and financial services) to fall five percent to 10 percent this year. “We’ve definitely seen a slowdown in sales. But we’re also in the financial business, so it’s two-fold for us,” says a spokesperson.

Eddie Bauer supports its September repositioning with targeted direct mail, and last month launched Bauer Bucks: Shoppers who spent $50 by Nov. 24 got a $10 coupon good through Dec. 9 to drive repeat traffic.

Direct mailers plan to clearly mark packages shipped as gifts so recipients aren’t spooked by unexpected mail. Retailers including Land’s End and Newport News will use branded stickers and pre-shipment postcards to alleviate consumer concerns.

December Defense