Back to Business

We were citizens that day, not consumers. When tragedy struck on Sept. 11, Americans stopped buying, stopped flying, stopped their daily commerce to shoulder heavier, emotional work. As they resume “normal” life — not the old normal, but a new sensibility — marketers are still figuring out how to talk to them.

It’s a delicate balancing act, business and emotion. While most marketing tries to elicit an emotional response, it rarely before has had to respond to such grief. Like all Americans, marketers grappled simultaneously with two contrasting issues: The certainty of what happened on Sept. 11, and the wholesale uncertainty that follows.

Corporations reacted swiftly to the attacks, donating cash and goods and tending to employee needs, then reviewing all campaigns in-market or ready to launch to pull any inappropriate work. Airlines pulled ads; United canceled a promotion planned to tout ease of check-in. DraftWorldwide revamped a youth marketing tour using a televangelist-style pitch “that would have been misconstrued,” says Draft senior executive-vp Tina Manikas. Ryan Partnership pulled some programs with travel prizes and a business-to-business effort; Aspen Marketing Group delayed a direct-mail campaign for auto dealers. Some marketing-related events were postponed; others stayed on course (see sidebar, pg. 63).

That was the easy part.

In the weeks following, as the stock market swayed, companies dialed up price offers with a patina of patriotism. Airlines slashed fares to woo back travelers. General Motors broke a Keep America Rolling campaign offering zero-percent financing through October — an offer planned in response to Sept. 11. “We have to resist the urge to hunker down. We have to take risks. Of course we won’t make money, but we’ll still sell cars,” GM ceo Richard Wagner told a Chicago Executive Club crowd in late September.

Einson Freeman, Paramus, NJ, resumed work on concepts for a beer client begun 10 days before the attack. “Some looked incredibly aggressive,” says ceo Carl Nichols. “We walked right away from them.”

Commerce took jilting steps back towards its usual pace, in between presidential press conferences and speculation over more terrorism. It was sensitive work, striking the right tone as the nation pondered recession and war. But the national mood was clear and resuming daily life became patriotic duty, even as air strikes on Afghanistan began in early October.

Now comes the tough call: How do marketers — many in the throes of 2002 planning — develop future campaigns under a cloud of uncertainty? When the country’s fortunes and mood can change dramatically in a single day, how do you set a 12-month plan? As Ryan president Tom Libonate puts it, “How much stomach will we have for this in six months?”

“I pray to God this doesn’t become a marketing hook,” says Jay Farrell, ceo of 141 Communicator, Chicago. “I hope we leave some spiritual things for churches and don’t try to do it with Coca-Cola.”

The Money

“There’s little question that marketing will be radically different,” says Northwestern University professor and marketing consultant Don Schultz. “There’ll be more focus on short-term returns because of political and economic uncertainty. We’ll have a major ROI re-evaluation, with a big push for measurement. [Marketers] won’t commit media money for a year at a time; there’ll be more short-term promotions.”

“No one is sure how much or how to do marketing,” says Nichols. “Government response will dictate how we react.” “Maybe we’re being short-sighted,” concurs Libonate, “but maybe right now we just have to do that.”

Many marketers had already tightened spending for 2002; some had held back 2001 funds in case they needed a heavy fourth-quarter push to make year-end numbers. Now, fourth-quarter media budgets are expected to drop five to 10 percent. Promotion could drop as much as five percent, down an estimated $1.25 billion to $1.5 billion from fourth-quarter 2000 (estimated at $25 billion to $30 billion).

Historically, marketers cut media budgets before promotion, but after Sept. 11, agencies no longer expect much increase in year-end spending, and some projects were pushed to first-quarter 2002. Third- and fourth-quarter performance, especially holiday sales, will give marketers a better barometer for next year.

“Budgets were already going away,” says Schultz. “We’ll see spending go on hold, then a drip feed of marketing money as senior management watches.” Without marketing, consumer confidence could keep falling — prompting more brands to hold back, and perhaps dropping confidence further.

Some say the angst is overplayed.

“It won’t be business as usual, but it won’t be that different,” says Jack Ryder, president of consultancy Cannondale Associates, Wilton, CT. “People will still eat, take medicine, put Band-Aids on their cuts. Business issues are no different now than they were [before], and we’re no more vulnerable to terrorism than we were.”

Retail-based agencies expect little change as they plan 2002 campaigns for packaged goods. “Retailers still want promotional variety and value. It’s the same competitive set,” says Westport, CT-based Ryan executive vp Bill Sinnott.

This recession’s emotional wild card will pressure promotion shops. Marketing has evolved to dual-purpose messaging on all fronts, building sales and brand equity. That means promos will have even more responsibility for branding as marketers strive harder than ever to strike the right tone in all communications as they do less media advertising.

“Companies won’t feel compelled to give it away and erode the brand equity they’ve built for 10 years,” says Mark Shapiro, ceo of Momentum, St. Louis. “Those who get on with business with an appropriate degree of sensitivity will do well.”

Besides, consumer confidence was already down, but not to a defeatist level, says J. Walker Smith, president of Yankelovich Partners, Norwalk, CT. A summer survey found 80 percent of consumers already expected a downturn, but only 17 percent thought it would seriously affect their lifestyles. Seventy one percent said it’s better to focus long-term. “No doubt consumers feel shakier, but getting them back to market is more about long-standing issues, not the trauma of Sept. 11,” Smith says.

Still, consumers wary of war and further terrorism will have little patience for elaborate pitches.

The Mood

“Big, splashy marketing will take a backseat to real-life stuff,” says Jonathan Ressler, president of Big Fat, Inc., New York City.

“Happy, jiggly, buy-my-product messages won’t resonate. Consumers will tune them out,” says consultant Neil Contess. Still, “as this sinks in as the new reality, people still have to decide whether to drink Coke or Pepsi.”

Marketers should re-evaluate brand essence and tactics: Messages true to the brand and sensitive to their audience won’t offend.

Flexibility is paramount, and contingency planning becomes urgent. Plans now consider scenarios that were unthinkable before, but marketers should keep them in perspective. “I won’t be cavalier, but there’s only so much contingency planning you can do,” says Shapiro. “If we err to pessimism, we’ll lose in the marketplace. Companies that continuously, judiciously communicate with consumers will be in the best place when the marketplace turns.”

Some marketers already had shortened planning cycles, one benefit of the strategic planning that’s become de rigueur for brands. Many packaged goods companies have cut 18-month planning cycles down to nine to 12, says Chicago-based Frankel president Dan Rose.

“Savvier marketers do a broad 12-month framework — with flexibility,” says Rose. “CPGs may do 12- to 18-month planning, but operations including retail sell-in have been condensed. New product launches have already shortened because the marketplace changes so rapidly.”

And it’ll keep changing, at an unpredictable pace. Consumer research — more frequent, more qualitative, closer to the street — helps register public mood. Shops such as Big Fat, Draft, and GMR Marketing keep using field staffers to take the consumer pulse. Flair, Chicago, planned focus groups for three weeks after the attacks, but were taking results with a grain of salt. “People will have different attitudes two weeks and two months from now,” says president Allyn Miller, who expects new research to influence second-quarter 2002 work.

Ryan will use Web TV to monitor the consumer mood, and will begin testing promotion concepts some time this month. Draft steps up focus groups to supplement info from field teams in 50 offices. Chicago-based Upshot makes research ongoing, not project-specific, and this month partners with psychologists to launch a diverse consumer panel. “It’s healing to be looking into consumers’ hearts and heads more deeply,” says ceo John Kelley.

Changes in consumer attitudes were already underway, contends Yankelovich’s Smith. “A massive reassessment of priorities was a strong force throughout 2001,” he says. “Sept. 11 gave people permission to talk about their shift in priorities and pull back from the rat race more than they would have otherwise.”

Six priorities dominate: family, community (including service and charity), integrity (including honesty and sacrifice), balance (especially work/life), authenticity, and security. That cues marketing to: make family appeals participatory; localize community appeals; offer unconditional service and emotional benefits (to get at integrity); offer laughter and gaiety to help balance daily activities; opt for simple, basic designs and genuine brand attributes; and consider person-to-person selling that makes consumers feel secure.

No matter the mood, be true to your brand, agency executives advise. “If [patriotism] is something your brand should be doing, you should have been doing it already,” warns Upshot’s Kelley.

Don’t jump on the donation bandwagon, then swing back abruptly in a need to feel “normal,” advises Carol Cone, president of cause marketing consultancy Cone Communications, Boston.

Agencies likely will pick up the slack on turnaround time for marketers still aiming to wrap up 2002 plans by mid-November. Aspen was nearly halfway through planning on Sept. 11. “We went back to square one,” says ceo Thomas Breslin. “We’re taking the appropriate breather to assess.”

For weeks, many marketers had trouble focusing on work “You see firefighters digging people out, and we’re here trying to find a headline for a brochure,” says Farrell. “It’s tough to feel passionate about work when it’s put in a perspective like that.”

The Future

Ironically, it’s personal reaction — what first distracted marketers — that will keep campaigns on track, as individuals rely on gut feeling as their gauge amid the uncertainty.

In case some surprise shakes the country again, filter ads and promos through p.r. experts, advises Cone. “It’s not on agency and marketer radar screens to be sensitive to certain things. When there’s a raw public, p.r. people can give more of a global perspective.”

The holidays will find folks in different moods — some more ready for humor, others still feeling strongly patriotic. (And there’s no predicting how heavily we’ll be entrenched in more war or more terrorism.)

“Holidays should be centered solely on family and kids, with much less commercialism,” advises Smith. “Tradition, even nostalgia, will be everywhere.”

“I expect a rash of ‘Buy this and we’ll donate a percentage to X cause’ to get people back in a buying mood,” says Cone. “Some of it will be distasteful. If you’re not sure what to do, look to your employees’ cue, but don’t go overboard and trumpet donations.”

Manufacturers also can follow consumer mood via retailers, whose daily face-to-face contact gives them a better (and faster) read on attitudinal shifts.

Here are some general trends to expect:

• “We” replaces “me.” “In the ‘90s, we all got so comfortable that the little things became the big things, and the individual reigned supreme,” says Nichols. “Now family, friends, and community will show up as priorities in marketing.”

• Stress and lack of control escalates. Research before the attacks showed consumers felt out of control of their lives. “The place to touch people is to help them feel more in control,” says Farrell.

• Back to core values. A July survey found 50 percent of Baby Boomers think about slowing their pace, and 72 percent of Gen X’ers want to do a good job but have personal time, too, Yankelovich reports. (Only 57 percent say work is an important part of who they are, down from 71 percent a year ago.)

  Days after the attack, Reader’s Digest fielded calls from potential new advertisers, many of them packaged goods brands. “The new ‘normal’ is in sync with where we’ve been,” says executive publisher-U.S. magazines Dom Rossi.

• More intimacy and at-home consumption. Don’t expect cocooning, says Smith. Rather, “intimacy will be the hallmark of the new lifestyle framework.” He defines “intimacy” as “the rebuilding of normal life around more intimate communities and settings,” and suggests brands fit consumers’ tighter social circles.

  Packaged goods sales should rise as consumers spend more time with family; that could mean more account-specific marketing. “We’re scrambling to put things in the marketplace [in first-quarter 2002] to respond to that,” says Flair’s Miller.

  When money is tight, consumers favor private label, which has grown each year during the economic boom and could keep on. But familiar brands — especially quintessential American brands — will give people comfort. Such brands need to play their Americanism “in a nuanced, sensitive way,” says Shapiro.

  The ability to do that is part of what made them great brands in the first place. As Farrell puts it, “Just be Oreos — don’t be red, white and blue Oreos.”

• Frivolity is out — for now. “If your brand is about frivolous fun, lay low. People will want to lighten up, but not as light as a fashion show,” advises Cone.

  Consumers are tired of hype, and have no mental energy for overblown pitches, Smith says. “They want what’s real and authentic.”

  Watch, too, for “claustrophobia of abundance,” he says. “People have been able to buy it all and do it all. They don’t want more stuff; they want something else in their lives.”

• Authenticity, high quality, and value are in. That means authentic marketing — think real-user testimonials instead of celebrity endorsements. Want to be cool? Find what your audience likes about your brand.

  “Being cool doesn’t matter. What’s important is being relevant,” says Ressler, whose field staff is personally recruited by local market managers to work on brands they use. Face-to-face pitches will ring true only if reps believe in the brand.

• Less tolerance for intrusion. It’s the other side of the authenticity coin: Be real, but don’t be there at the wrong time or with the wrong crowd. Consumers may be wary of uninvited pitches. Even street sampling gets tricky: “Will people want someone handing them something on the street?” asks Nichols, whose shop changed tactics for a campaign that included guerrilla marketing. (“Will people be using that phrase again?” he posits.)

• People are gentler. Expect a softer tone in marketing, especially with youth campaigns. “They had become very aggressive, almost commando-like,” Nichols says. “Parents and kids won’t want to see that.”

• Patriotism changes. It now encompasses everyday heroes like cops and firemen. Retailers will want patriotic campaigns more than marketers because retailers are face-to-face with consumers, says Libonate. “There’s an opportunity for marketers to support what retailers are doing.”

  Per-pack donations are dicey. “It can’t look like your way to sell one more package,” Manikas says.

  Patriotism will feel different six months from now, too. “We cautioned clients not to be too reactive because a lot of things that are out of our control can still happen,” says Kelley.

  “Patriotism is a tough card to play,” says Miller, recounting a vendor’s apology for missing a Sept. 10 deadline: “It was all wrapped up in the flag. It was cheesy.”

  Patriotic fervor won’t wipe out consumers’ sense of paradox, but it makes them less receptive to irony, says Smith. “We can just wipe that smirk off the face of our advertising” and drop the smart-aleck self-absorption that has marked attitudes and marketing for the last 10 years. But don’t swing too far, because “blandness and clichés will wear thin very quickly,” he advises.

• Travel prizes, entertainment tie-ins lose appeal. When will families be ready again for a trip to Walt Disney World? The holidays should be a good indicator of how safe people feel flying. In the meantime, marketers will opt for other family-centric prizes — an entertainment center, a new car.

  Entertainment properties get tighter scrutiny, too, with audiences sensitive to violent fare. “Companies will be more focused on family and American values than attaching themselves to [outside] properties,” suggests Schultz.

  Event marketing that seems dicey now likely will re-blossom by next summer. In the weeks after Sept. 11, Clear Channel Entertainment, New York City, reviewed 12-month plans for events in its 44 U.S. amphitheaters. “Fourth quarter and next summer will have very different tones” from each other, says chief marketing officer Paula Balzer. “We’ll use personal assessment and a measure of respect” to decide what’s appropriate next year.

  Events and field marketing are easy to change on the fly if there’s another national crisis. Big Fat is used to two-week to three-month turnaround times, so can change midstream if necessary. Field marketing also could pick up if extended news coverage — of war, for example — limits ad airtime, says Mike Napoliello, president of U.S. Marketing & Promotions, Torrance, CA.

The Horizon

Loyalty marketing and its protégé, customer relationship management, will grow long-term, says Rick Barlow, president of consultancy Frequency Marketing, Inc., Milford, OH. “Companies that know and talk with their customers individually can respond quickly and find out what they need.”

Loyalty will be key for beleaguered airlines, whose future programs have two tasks: Get consumers flying again, and keep frequent-flier miles a viable currency.

“The attacks challenged the airlines to get back to the roots of their programs as brand loyalty devices,” says Barlow. By October, Delta and others had lowered mile requirements for free tickets (15,000 miles, down from 25,000) and upgrades. That woos travelers back now, while seats are empty. “The more free trips people take, the more comfortable they’ll be flying,” says Barlow. “It also whets their appetite for miles, which is important to keep marketing partners buying miles.”

Cause marketing, too, will grow. Already, 90 percent of U.S. companies have a cause-marketing program. “The question now is, how to make it more effective,” says Cone. “Consumers are much savvier about whether something is a genuine cause effort.”

To capitalize on the mood of helping others without looking like you’re exploiting the situation, set short-, mid-, and long-term goals, suggests Cone.

And what of global expansion? Marketers will probably focus on “safe” areas like China, says Schultz. “How will quintessentially American brands be accepted overseas?”

For now, the focus is carrying on at home, staying true to the brand — and true to consumers. “Sept. 11 didn’t destroy the basic purpose of our enterprises,” says Smith. “We provide solutions to people’s problems. The key is to find their problems after Sept. 11, and solve them.”

“Regardless of what happens, we’ll still want to celebrate the holidays, and we’ll still want to laugh,” says Libonate.

We are, after all, human — perhaps more so than before.

Adjusting the Calendar

The events of Sept. 11 jarred the rest of the schedule. Several p.r. and industry events were cancelled, including Walt Disney World’s Oct. 1-3 launch of 100 Years of Magic for 3,000 international media outlets (October PROMO) and the Association of National Advertisers annual meeting one week later.

At least one major trip prize, MGD’s Blind Date in the Bermuda Triangle, was postponed until next year. The trip for eight winners and guests was originally set for Oct. 6-8. Miller held off because “the travel industry is in such disarray, and if we can pull back and reassess once more, that’s good,” says Gary Reynolds, president of handling agency GMR Marketing, New Berlin, WI.

Other campaigns continued. Big Fat, Inc., New York City, maintained a dozen street promotions in Manhattan that very week. Levi Strauss’s Slates mobile tour stayed on the road: “Since business needs to go on, we’ll support that,” says David Paro, ceo of handling agency CMI, East Rutherford, NJ.

The Winter Olympic Games will go on in Salt Lake City in February as scheduled. “The Olympics is a place where the world has always come together in peace,” says Judy Shoemaker, director of marketing and promotion services for the Salt Lake Organizing Committee. “We don’t expect this to be any different.” No sponsor has pulled planned activities, although some have expressed concern about Games security and their hospitality programs, she says.

The NFL postponed the Super Bowl one week (to Feb. 3) to make up the cancellation of games the week after the attacks. The league has promised to work with sponsors to reschedule hospitality events if need be.

Agency reviews continued despite an initial halt right after the attacks. On Sept. 28, the Centers for Disease Control, Atlanta, assigned its $125 million national youth media campaign to Frankel, Chicago, and Publicis Groupe siblings Saatchi & Saatchi and Publicis Dialog, both New York City. “I thought people would be frozen in their tracks,” says Frankel executive vp Dick Thomas.