Mobile, Online Video Ads to Buck the Downward Trend in 2009
According to a recent report, titled “Media Advertising Forecast,” released by MAGNA, national and local advertising revenues will decline 14.5 percent in 2009.
MAGNA forecasts that newspapers will see the largest hit with a 29.5 percent drop in revenues to $28.5 billion. The company estimates that national newspapers will see a drop of 23.6 percent in revenues while local newspapers will see a 26.6 percent decline.
Radio will see the second biggest drop, as MAGNA expects this medium to see a 21.0 percent decline to $14.0 billion in 2009.
Magazines will see the third largest drop-off with an 18.3 percent decline to $15.7 billion in ad revenues in 2009.
Television is expected to see the fourth largest decline with a 14.4 percent decrease in ad revenues to $47.7 billion expected in 2009.
Meanwhile, direct mail is expected to see an 11.2 percent decline in 2009 to $19.2 billion in ad revenues. Directories are forecast to experience a 10.5 percent drop to $12.1 billion in 2009.
Outdoor is expected to see a 12.9 percent decline to $6.1 billion in ad revenues this year.
Online, including direct online media, national and local online, is expected to see the smallest drop in 2009. The medium is forecast to see a 2.2 percent decline in ad revenues this year to a total of $23.0 billion.
Direct online media, a subset of the online category, is expected to see a 2.9 percent increase. This includes search, lead generation and Internet yellow pages.
eMarketer notes that other companies have different expectations for the online medium. Its own forecast has digital ad spending set to grow 4.5 percent in 2009, while PricewaterhouseCoopers expects the medium to decline 4 percent and Credit Suisse expects it to see flat growth of 4 percent.
Mobile advertising, on the other hand, is expected to grow 36 percent from $169 million last year to $229 million in 2009, according to MAGNA. This figure will grow to $331 million in 2010 and $409 million in 2011, according to the company’s forecast.
Meanwhile, online video advertising is expected to grow 32 percent to $699.0 million in 2009. This figure will grow to $863.6 million in 2010 and $1.0 billion in 2011, according to MAGNA.
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