Recovery in Global Advertising Near?

GroupM, a unit of WPP, recently forecast a decline in global advertising spending in 2009, followed by a modest recovery in 2010.

According to the group’s “This Year, Next Year” study, worldwide ad spending will decline 5.5 percent in 2009, with the sharpest declines set to take place in Emerging Europe (-16.3 percent), Western Europe (-11.1 percent) and North America (-4.2 percent).

Asia-Pacific will see a 2.8 percent decline in ad spending, while the Middle East/Africa will see a 1.5 percent drop in spending.

Only Latin America is slated to see an increase in ad spending this year, with a 6.9 percent boost expected by GroupM.

The picture will improve in some regards in 2010, according to GroupM, but worldwide ad spending is still expected to decline 1.4 percent. Only North America (-6.1 percent) and Western Europe (-3.5 percent) are expected to see continued drops in ad spending. Latin America will once again lead the uptick with a 10.7 percent increase in ad spending.

“If our forecasts are right, ad investment in 2010 will struggle to match 2004 in real terms,” said Adam Smith, futures director at GroupM.

Growth will be led by emerging countries like Brazil, Russia, India and China, as stalwart countries like the U.K., Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan follow behind.

In 2008, worldwide ad spending grew 1.8 percent, with the biggest increases occurring in the Middle East/Africa (20.7 percent), Latin America (11.3 percent) and Emerging Europe (11.2 percent).

Total worldwide ad spending is expected to be $416.4 billion in 2009, according to GroupM. North America will lead the way with $160.4 billion, followed by Asia-Pacific with $113.6 billion, Western Europe with $94.5 billion, Latin America with $20.1 billion, Emerging Europe with $15.0 billion and the Middle East/Africa with $12.8 billion.

In 2010, ad spending is expected to be $410.6 billion worldwide, led by North America with $150.6 billion, followed by Asia-Pacific with $117.2 billion, Western Europe with $91.4 billion, Latin America with $22.2 billion, Emerging Europe with $15.4 billion and the Middle East/Africa with $13.8 billion.

In 2008, worldwide ad spending totaled $440.8 billion.

Sources:</strong

http://www.emarketer.com/Article.aspx?R=1007155

http://www.mediapost.com/publications/?fa=Articles.showArticle&art_aid=108594