Media buyers are warning that Turner Broadcasting, home of TNT and TBS, could be playing a dangerous game by holding out for higher advertising than its rival cable networks in the continuing cable upfront market.
Turner, which has not commented on its position, has been asking marketers for cost-per-1,000-home (CPM) increases in the 4%-6% range, on par with ABC and the higher range of CBS, according to media buying sources.
“It’s counterintuitive to a lot of the marketplace,” says one agency executive. “My sense is a lot of agencies are going to look at [Turner] and say, We’re going to negotiate with your competition.”
Other sources familiar with the pace of the upfront talks across the network say that it was more likely that after all the posturing was over Turner would settle for slightly lower rate increases, in the 2%-4% range with the top tier of cable networks.
Another option for Turner is to hold back more inventory for the “scatter” market – ad time that the network sells once the season begins – in hopes that prices firm up by them as some cable executives are expecting.
Turner may believe it has some momentum on its side in the wake of the strong ratings TNT earned for the debut of its “Into the West” miniseries two weeks ago and “The Closer” police drama series last week.
Cable networks seem to be settling into three tiers: aggressive, middle-of-the-road, and lagging. Some large companies, such as Viacom’s MTV Networks, are writing business at a normal pace, according to agency sources. “They’re in a rationale frame of mind,” says one executive.
Cable is struggling because “they allowed the broadcast networks to keep the vast majority of their share,” says one buyer. “The cable networks went in too aggressively and thus didn’t want to write early business and steal share.” When ABC and CBS wrote early business, there was little left for cable.
