(O&F Weekly)—Strong? Weak? So-so? You decide. The online holiday sales forecasts are in, and as usual, the various projections contradict one another. For instance, comScore Networks, Inc. predicts a 23% to 25% increase in holiday spending from last year, expecting e-merchants to rake in $15 billion in November and December alone. ComScore Networks senior VP Dan Hess predicts strong growth in jewelry and watches, furniture, appliances and equipment and home and garden products, “indicating a continued shift to online buying in categories that were traditionally only bought offline.”
A study by BizRate.com and Shop.org is even more gung-ho. This survey of 103 online merchants and 1,722 consumers reports that 98% of the merchants expect their Internet sales to expand during the holiday season; 23% forecast growth of 100% or more. A third of the consumers plan to do more online shopping this year, and many will begin their shopping earlier.
Pit this against a more somber outlook from Forrester Research, Inc. analyst Carrie Johnson warns e-tailers to “proceed with caution,” pointing out that weak sales in the second and third quarters of this year, coupled with consumers’ preference for in-store shopping (spurred by huge discounts and promotions), augur a tepid holiday season. Johnson pegs holiday sales at $13.2 billion between Thanksgiving and Christmas.
Network
