For the fourth straight year, consumers plan to decrease the amount they spend for back-to-school shopping, according to Deloitte’s 2026 Back-to-School Survey. The research firm conducted its annual survey in May, and asked 1,207 parents with at least one child attending Grades kindergarten through 12 this fall.
Consumers plan to spend $557 per child for back-to-school in 2026, down 2% from $570 in 2025 and down 16% (more than $100 per child) from the peak inflation period in 2022, when consumers spent $661 per child for back-to-school.
Adjusted for inflation, the decrease in spend is 6% compared with last year, according to Deloitte.
Deloitte finds several reasons for the lower back-to-school spend in 2026:
- 57% of parents expect the economy to worsen in the next six months, which is the highest it’s been since 2020.
- At 24%, nearly a quarter of parents are concerned about making upcoming payments.
- The cumulative increase of inflation is higher than wage growth between 2020-2026.
How consumers plan to spend depends on their income bracket. Lower- and middle-income groups plan to spend more than last year, roughly 10-12% more, mostly because of higher prices (80%), according to the survey. Upper-middle and higher-income groups plan to spend less, between 9-20% less than last year, because they have less to spend (63% of shoppers) and are concerned about the economy (67%), according to the survey.
Deloitte categorizes the income groups as follows:
- Lower income: Less than $50,000 annually
- Lower-middle income: $50,000-$99,000
- Upper-middle income: $100,000-$199,000
- Higher income: $200,000 and higher
Back-to-school shopping is when parents replenish what their children need for the school year, and if those items are more expensive, consumers have no choice but to pay the higher price, said Brian McCarthy, principal and retail strategy leader at Deloitte. In fact, 50% of parents say they are cutting back on other expenses to make room for back-to-school spending.
Parents also shop for some discretionary items, like clothing, for back-to-school. These are the items shoppers are hesitating to buy because they have more necessities they need to spend on, McCarthy said.
Savvy Shoppers
Regardless of how much shoppers are spending, they are looking for value. Nearly one in three shoppers (31%) identify as hyper-value seekers, which are parents who use four or more of the following five money-saving behaviors: switching to a cheaper brand, choosing private label over name brands, shopping at more affordable retailers, buying in bulk and using cashback websites.
This is a meaningful number, McCarthy said, and an increase from last year.
“If you look through it, 71% saying they’re willing to switch brands if a preferred brand is too expensive, 60% planning to shop at more affordable retailers and over 50% expecting to shop private labels,” McCarthy said. “It’s an interesting push and pull where there’s this need for brands and retailers to really focus on building their loyalty and connection with consumers — but consumers are signaling, as value becomes their priority — that they’re very willing to be less loyal if they feel they can get better value elsewhere.”
These hyper-value consumers are also expected to spend 14% more than other shoppers. This suggests that value is more than just the cheapest price, and shoppers may be more thoughtful with their spending than frugal, according to Deloitte.
“It relates to the digital savviness that the more engaged you are, the more opportunity there is for you to build a connection and a relationship with a brand or a retailer and understand the products you’re looking for,” McCarthy said. “That maybe means you get a better deal, but because of that, you might feel that you’re getting more value for your purchase and you’re likely to spend a bit more because of that.”
Retail Marketers Need To Emphasize Value Beyond Price
For retail marketers, that means they should emphasize all the value their brand can provide, such as quality and services, and not just “this is the price,” McCarthy said.
McCarthy shared two examples that retailers could improve their communication on: shipping speed and returns. For example, he sees many retailers hedging how long shipping takes. Even if retailers can deliver 90% of their merchandise in two days, they may just promise five days so as not to disappoint shoppers. However, this under-promise, over-deliver strategy negatively impacts conversion, he said. Many shoppers may abandon their cart if shipping will take too long. He suggests retailers think about how to balance this message depending on how often they deliver their orders in two days.
Another overlooked communication area is returns. Consumers find value in knowing how long it takes to receive a refund and how they can return an item. Retailers shouldn’t be shy about talking about returns, as it is part of the consumer value proposition, he said.
Parents Will Spend $30.4 Billion for Back-to-School Shopping 2026
Overall, Deloitte estimates back-to-school spending to reach $30.4 billion in 2026, which is roughly flat compared with 2025.
Back-to-school is among the top shopping periods of the year, behind holiday shopping. Although, the shopping periods showcase distinct customer behaviors, and how consumers spend during back-to-school shopping doesn’t necessarily forecast holiday spending, McCarthy said. This relates to back-to-school being more about the essentials, and holiday spending varies based on the financial positioning of the household.
“Even if the economy was in rapid growth mode and wage rates were much higher than inflation, we wouldn’t necessarily see a dramatic swing year to year in back-to-school, but you could see some of that volatility in holiday,” McCarthy said.
The survey also found:
- Shoppers plan to concentrate back-to-school shopping in late July and early August, which is later than last year when early July was the more popular time to shop.
- Shoppers plan to buy mostly in-store, at 35%, followed by an even split between online and in store at 24%, and then mostly online at 22%.
- Shoppers expect to spend the most at mass merchants (46%) and online retailers (20%).
- By category, the large majority of shoppers are shopping for school supplies (96%) and clothing and accessories (93%). Only 22% of consumers are shopping for tech products for back-to-school, and 56% spend on home, health and other.
